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India’s 2022-23 Base Year GDP Series
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is revising past GDP growth rates, including data going back to 2023-24, with some revisions upward and others downward. The revisions are linked to methodology changes in the 2022-23 base year GDP series, including the use of Producer Price Index (PPI) for double deflation and updated deflators.
India’s 2022-23 Base Year GDP Series (MoSPI):
| Dimension | Key Details |
|---|---|
| Revising authority | GDP estimates and revisions are compiled by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). |
| Base year revision | MoSPI has released a new GDP series in February 2026 after changing the base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23. |
| Quarterly estimation approach | Quarterly GDP estimates are compiled using a benchmark-indicator approach guided by high-frequency indicators: crop production, cement production, finished steel consumption, and commercial vehicle sales. |
| Annual estimation basis | Annual GDP estimates are based on actual output data. |
| Reason for quarterly revisions | Quarterly estimates are revised as more actual data becomes available from company financial results and MoSPI surveys. |
| Recent quarterly revision (example) | Growth for January-March 2026 (Q4 of FY26) has been revised upward from 7.8% to 8.6%. |
| GDP calculation identity | GDP comprises Gross Value Added (GVA) by each sector, plus indirect taxes collected by the government, minus subsidies. |
| GVA definition | GVA is the difference between the value of a sector’s output and the value of its inputs. |
| Nominal GVA | At current prices, GVA is termed nominal GVA. |
| Old inflation removal method | The old series uses single deflation, where inputs and outputs for each sector are deflated by the same number, except for agriculture and mining and quarrying. |
| Old deflators used | Under the old series, the common deflator is based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), or their sub-indices. |
| Single deflation limitation | Single deflation works well only when input and output prices move at the same rate, and divergence between them produces errors. |
| New inflation removal method | Double deflation adjusts inputs by input inflation and outputs by output inflation to compute a more accurate real GVA. |
| Adoption of double deflation | MoSPI adopts double deflation in the 2022-23 series after repeated criticism that single deflation is underestimating or overestimating real growth. |
| Illustration of single vs double deflation | An example uses ₹100 inputs and ₹200 output (nominal GVA ₹100), with next-year values of ₹120 inputs and ₹240 output; under a common 3% deflator, real GVA is ₹116.5 (16.5% growth), while under 5% input and 2% output deflators, real GVA is ₹121 (21% growth) with an implicit deflator of -0.8%. |
| Negative deflator context | The article cites April-June 2026 nominal growth of 10.3%, and notes the manufacturing deflator is negative in 6 of the 13 quarters since April-June 2023. |
| Manufacturing deflator linkage | The manufacturing deflator moves inversely with crude oil prices, which are described as a crucial manufacturing input. |
| Initial deflators in the new series | When the new GDP series comes out in February 2026, inflation is removed using the CPI, the WPI, and their sub-indices. |
| Shift to PPI in revisions | The latest GDP revisions occur because MoSPI has switched to the Producer Price Index (PPI). |
| PPI definition and coverage | PPI captures the price a producer receives at the factory gate, and it leaves out taxes and margins added by traders and transporters. |
| Services-sector deflation issue in old series | In July-September 2025, services sector inflation is shown as 1.2% because WPI is used to adjust services GVA, and the WPI tracks only goods and has no services in it. |
| Deflators count | With PPIs, MoSPI uses more than 300 separate deflators, compared to about 180 in the old series. |
| Input PPI limitation | The input PPI is at a trial stage and exists only for manufacturing. |